4. Religion. Your reason is now mature enough to examine this object. In the first place, divest yourself of all bias in favor of novelty
Thomas JeffersonTags: science inspiration inquiry evidence astronomy-nerd book-of-joshua contradiction critical-examination divine-inspiration examine joshua livy new-testament probability supernatural tacitus testimony
I do not pretend to be able to prove that there is no God. I equally cannot prove that Satan is a fiction. The Christian god may exist; so may the gods of Olympus, or of ancient Egypt, or of Babylon. But no one of these hypotheses is more probable than any other: they lie outside the region of even probable knowledge, and therefore there is no reason to consider any of them.
Bertrand RussellTags: knowledge reason belief burden-of-proof fiction satan superstition gods probability proof egyptian babylon christian-god hypothesis olympus rational santa
The 50-50-90 rule: anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there's a 90% probability you'll get it wrong.
Andy RooneyTags: mistakes probability
I know that two and two make four - and should be glad to prove it too if I could - though I must say if by any sort of process I could convert 2 and 2 into five it would give me much greater pleasure.
Lord ByronTags: miracles logic mortality probability mathematics
In practical life we are compelled to follow what is most probable ; in speculative thought we are compelled to follow truth.
Baruch SpinozaTags: science truth probability speculation
The concept of randomness and coincidence will be obsolete when people can finally define a formulation of patterned interaction between all things within the universe.
Toba BetaTags: life truth people random universe secret interaction mystery probability coincidence define pattern formulation obsolete
Another mistaken notion connected with the law of large numbers is the idea that an event is more or less likely to occur because it has or has not happened recently. The idea that the odds of an event with a fixed probability increase or decrease depending on recent occurrences of the event is called the gambler's fallacy. For example, if Kerrich landed, say, 44 heads in the first 100 tosses, the coin would not develop a bias towards the tails in order to catch up! That's what is at the root of such ideas as "her luck has run out" and "He is due." That does not happen. For what it's worth, a good streak doesn't jinx you, and a bad one, unfortunately , does not mean better luck is in store.
Leonard MlodinowTags: statistics math luck probability gambling
Ignorance gives one a large range of probabilities.
George EliotTags: ignorance probability
He could not believe that any of them might actually hit somebody. If one did, what a nowhere way to go: killed by accident; slain not as an individual but by sheer statistical probability, by the calculated chance of searching fire, even as he himself might be at any moment. Mathematics! Mathematics! Algebra! Geometry! When 1st and 3d Squads came diving and tumbling back over the tiny crest, Bell was content to throw himself prone, press his cheek to the earth, shut his eyes, and lie there. God, oh, God! Why am I here? Why am I here? After a moment's thought, he decided he better change it to: why are we here. That way, no agency of retribution could exact payment from him for being selfish.
James JonesTags: fear death warfare selfishness statistics probability retribution mathematics geometry algebra payment bell machine-guns
Anything at all is possible. Some things are unlikely. Some things will never happen. But they always could, at any time.
Ashly LorenzanaTags: possibility probability
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