The more interviews that an expert had done with the press, Tetlock found, the worse his predictions tended to be.
Nate SilverMots clés predictions experts
If political scientists couldn’t predict the downfall of the Soviet Union—perhaps the most important event in the latter half of the twentieth century—then what exactly were they good for?
Nate SilverMots clés political-science
Most of you will have heard the maxim "correlation does not imply causation." Just because two variables have a statistical relationship with each other does not mean that one is responsible for the other. For instance, ice cream sales and forest fires are correlated because both occur more often in the summer heat. But there is no causation; you don't light a patch of the Montana brush on fire when you buy a pint of Haagan-Dazs.
Nate SilverMots clés causation correlation
Good innovators typically think very big and they think very small. New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look. And they are sometimes found when you are doing your most abstract and philosophical thinking, considering why the world is the way that it is and whether there might be an alternative to the dominant paradigm. Rarely can they be found in the temperate latitudes between they two spaces, where we spend 99 percent of our lives.
Nate Silver...the ratings agencies' problem was in being unable or uninterested in appreciating the distinction between risk and uncertainty.
Nate SilverMots clés prediction risk uncertainty ratings
If there is a mutual distrust between the weather forecaster and the public, the public may not listen when they need to most.
Nate SilverShakespeare's plays often turn on the idea of fate, as much drama does. What makes them so tragic is the gap between what his characters might like to accomplish and what fate provides them.
Nate SilverMots clés drama-fate-life-humanity-science
The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
Nate SilverDistinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.
Nate SilverMots clés wisdom prediction knowledge uncertainty self-knowledge bias
When catastrophe strikes, we look for a signal in the noise - anything that might explain the chaos that we see all around us and bring order to the world again.
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