Note that scholars are judged mostly on how many times their work is referenced in other people's work and thus cliques are formed of people who quote one another. It's an "I quote you, you quote me" type of business.
Nassim Nicholas TalebBlack Swan has three attributes: unpredictability, consequences, retrospective explainability.
Nassim Nicholas TalebKnow how to rank beliefs not according to their plausibility but by the harm they may cause.
Nassim Nicholas TalebPrediction requires knowing about technologies that will be discovered in the future, but that very knowledge would almost automatically allow us to start developing those technologies right away. Ergo we do not know what we will know.
Nassim Nicholas TalebBeing an executive doesn't require very developed frontal lobes, but rather a combination of charisma, a capacity to sustain boredom, and the ability to shallowly perform on harrowing schedules.
Nassim Nicholas TalebDon't look for the precise and local. Simply; do not be narrow minded.
Nassim Nicholas TalebSeize any opportunity or anything that looks like opportunity.
Nassim Nicholas TalebBeware of precise plans by government. Let government predict: it makes them feel better about themselves and justifies their existence.
Nassim Nicholas TalebThere are some people who, if they don't already know, you can't tell them.
As the great philosopher of uncertainty Yogi berra once said, "Don't waste your time trying to fight forecasters, stock analysts, economists and social scientists, except to play pranks on them.
...make a distinction between positive contingencies, and negative. Learn to distinguish between those human undertakings in which a lack of predictability has been extremely beneficial, and those where failure to understand the future has caused harm.
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