Intelligence is not only the ability to reason; it is also the ability to find relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed.
Daniel KahnemanA general “law of least effort” applies to cognitive as well as physical
exertion. The law asserts that if there are several ways of achieving the
same goal, people will eventually gravitate to the least demanding course
of action. In the economy of action, effort is a cost, and the acquisition of
skill is driven by the balance of benefits and costs. Laziness is built deep into our nature.
Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.
Daniel KahnemanNothing in life is as important as you think it is when you are thinking about it.
Daniel KahnemanTags: thinking priorities importance focus biases heuristics focusing-illusion
This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.
Daniel KahnemanThe idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.
Daniel KahnemanTags: prediction future psychology
The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.
Daniel KahnemanWe are pattern seekers, believers in a coherent world, in which regularities appear not by accident but as a result of mechanical causality or of someone´s intention. We do not expect to see regularity produced by a random process, and when we detect what appears to be a rule, we quickly reject the idea that the process is truly random. Random processes produce many sequences that convince people that the process is not random after all.
Daniel KahnemanTags: random
Dawes observed that the complex statistical algorithm adds little or no value. One can do just as well by selecting a set of scores that have some validity for predicting the outcome and adjusting the values to make them comparable (by using standard scores or ranks). A formula that combines these predictors with equal weights is likely to be just as accurate in predicting new cases as the multiple-regression formula that was optimal in the original sample. More recent research went further: formulas that assign equal weights to all the predictors are often superior, because they are not affected by accidents of sampling.
Daniel KahnemanTags: simplicity statistics algorithms
Nothing in life is as important as you think it is when you are thinking of it.
Daniel KahnemanTags: reflection focusing-illusion
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